Tuesday, 23 March 2010

Five More Years of Brown?

As I speak to people up and down the land (yesterday in north Manchester), the answer comes back the same:
We do not want five more years of Gordon Brown.

Funny thing is when you ask them if they’ll be voting for Cameron’s Conservatives they don’t seem quite so sure, as if there is some kind of third option for Prime Minister -- which they have to agree there isn’t.
A vote for any of the minor parties is a wasted vote when it comes to turfing out Gordon Brown.
That is the conundrum the opinion pollsters face, complicated by a serious flaw in their methodology.
You see, when you ask floating voters how they voted five years ago they genuinely can’t remember, and so make it up -- and say Conservative if they’re leaning that way now. So their opinion is excluded by the pollsters when they weight the raw data to match the actual result in 2005, skewing their prediction for 2010.
Best hang on for the exit poll at 10pm on May 6th.

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