Dog Day Afternoon

Ashford, Middlesex had its own armed bank robbery Monday afternoon. The siege lasted barely a quarter as long as events in the film Dog Day Afternoon, though it was almost as hot.
The police did not acquit themselves well, cordoning off the entire area without explanation. I had to waste my time rescuing a teenage overseas visitor left stranded at the railway station.

Instead of sending people to traffic school for minor motoring infringements police officers should attend charm school themselves, and they might get the cooperation from the public they say they crave. Instead, most crimes go unreported, and our elders live as prisoners in their own homes.
With the Ashford bank robber caught red-handed surely he can go straight to prison, with no reason ever to release him. He made his choice.

Who’s Laffing Now?

As the economist Arthur Laffer pointed out in the 1970s, increasing the rates levied by certain taxes will actually reduce overall revenue.
The UK Budget will be announced later today, and there is talk of some tax rates going up, especially taxes on capital.
And that’s where I’m confused, because critics of any increase in such rates predict diminishing returns. Surely a reduction in overall taxation is a good thing?
Or could it be that so many entrepreneurs would simply emigrate, leaving us all much worse off?

World Cup on Television

Oh for a life on welfare benefits with all the time in the world, and no need to worry about getting a flat screen TV.
Six months after my television broke down I finally found time to buy a new one today. No more squinting at a 14-inch portable, though watching BBC iPlayer via a computer monitor is quite handy.
I ended up buying the TV that was displaying the last three minutes of my team winning today’s World Cup match.
I’m not a great football fan and I didn’t even know until yesterday that Chile had reached the World Cup finals. So far they’ve won both matches played.
I first followed Chile after getting embroiled in the ecstatic celebrations in Santiago moments after they qualified for the 1998 World Cup -- all completely non-violent.

BP Political Blow-out

I continue to be shocked by how supine are reports about the Gulf of Mexico oil spill by the world’s media.
I was pleased to see that President Obama’s brother was recently denied entry to Britain for being a criminal, a sanction that should equally apply to the President himself.
For the Deepwater Horizon disaster is far more political than environmental.
The current spill is not large in relative terms. Much more oil escapes into the Gulf of Mexico from natural fissures in the seabed each and every year, and has done for millions of years. A similar explosion on a rig owned by the Mexican Government in 1979 released at least three times as much oil in shallow water, some of which washed on to Texan shores.
The truth is, drilling in the Gulf of Mexico is not just physically complex but is laced with more political corruption that in any other oil region -- more than Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Azerbaijan put together.
BP is well up to the task in all other regions of the world, but its exemplary safety standards are continually vetoed by it’s US subsidiary, backed by pressure from the local trades unions and oil services giant Halliburton (which has inappropriate influence within the US Government and to whom BP had subcontracted the drilling).
The Americans think they know best.
In any other part of the world the domino series of failures that led to the Deepwater Horizon explosion would just not have been allowed to develop. For that reason the American political establishment is fully culpable, and gives the Third World a bad name.
The US Government should be indemnifying British taxpayers and investors for losses incurred by BP, not the other way round.

Contradictory Views amongst Voters

People often say they only ever see politicians at election time.
Conversely we you call on people after an election they complain why are you calling now, there’s not an election is there? You just can’t win.
Here’s another conundrum. Liberal Democrat voters believe Conservatives and LibDems are all the same now (following the coalition at Westminster). I’m not quite sure of the answer to that one, though it does indicate that no one is sure what the LibDems stand for any more.
Another amusing contradiction comes from the ComRes opinion poll last week. 78% of people prefer proportional representation, and yet in the same breath 72% do not like the political horse-trading that follows a hung parliament!
They say the customer is always right.

Unconventional Lifestyles

Aired on the BBC last night was the story of Anne Lister who led an unconventional lifestyle during the first half of the 19th century. Little was known at the time.
When a relative discovered her coded diaries in the 1890s he was forced to keep quiet about them by his own similar lifestyle, during even more puritanical times.
Even in the 1960s the content was considered too risqué by the authorities, and by the time they were finally published in 1988 they were considered so outrageous that they were rumoured to be a hoax.
And yet even in these so-called enlightened times a cabinet minister resigned last week for similar behaviour. And please London Daily Telegraph, stop repeating the pretence that the David Laws report would have been published without revealing his sexual orientation. Without that crucial admission there was no story, and there would have been no resignation.

Why Now?

The London based Daily Telegraph newspaper faces the most serious question about David Laws’ resignation, and that is: Why now?
Why reveal information pertaining to his personal relationship as it relates to a rule change in 2006 about MPs renting accommodation from a “partner” -- a murky term if ever there were one?

It is certainly most detrimental to the coalition government, and hence the economic fortunes of the United Kingdom, and thus totally irresponsible.

Today the Telegraph makes the naïve claim they had no intention of revealing the victim’s sexual orientation. What a foolish claim.

It’s ironic that had David Laws defected to the Conservative Party at the time of the rule change he could then have safely come out, and stopped claiming for the London flat without giving rise to any suspicion.
But he didn’t, because he wrongly thought the Conservative Party more homophobic than his own LibDems.

Deepwater Horizon

I find the media reporting and reaction to the oil well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico astoundingly amateur.
The resources being brought to bear by Sunbury-on-Thames based BP are truly remarkable.
In contrast the response of the American Government -- including their President -- is a complete joke. And the British Government could afford to show a bit of backbone and stick up for it’s economic interests.

BP has 1,100 vessels involved, and 22,000 people working on the containment exercise, including a whole series of largely experimental solutions until one cures the unprecedented problem. Whilst these methods worked successfully to plug the wells blown by Saddam Hussein in Kuwait, they’ve never been tried before at 5,000ft depth of water.
The final solution maybe another two months away when a relief well is able to plug the well bore 16,000 feet below the surface, with a backup relief well two weeks behind that, in case of any snag.
In fact all the skills needed to cure the problem are entirely within the private sector, and the almighty US Government is completely out of its depth.

Coalition Misgivings

I couldn’t help noticing the Liberal Democrats in Twickenham and Richmond are having a meeting on Thursday week (3rd June) to “discuss the coalition government”. Vince Cable will “speak, answer questions and listen to members' views.”
Now, political parties do not have meetings like that unless they have serious misgivings amongst their rank and file.
And for a party that has spent the last fifty years preaching the wonders of proportional representation and coalition government, the fact that they hesitate when they find themselves part of one is utter hypocrisy.

TaxPayers’ Alliance

This evening I attended a political dinner in Staines with Mark Wallace, Campaign Director of the TaxPayers’ Alliance.
Similar to the Tea Party movement in America, the TPA sees itself as the guardian of British taxpayers’ money, and delights in exposing government waste by using the Freedom of Information Act.
More interesting is that its growing membership of around 50,000 could soon overtake that of the Liberal Democrat Party.

How the Other Half Lives

In the last two years I’ve had two TVs breakdown, so am now reliant on an ancient 14” portable set, as I simply do not have the time to go out and buy a new one.
Go around any housing estate and I used to reckon you could spot the families living on welfare by the flat screen TVs visible through the curtains.
But it’s more subtle than that. These days only those on benefits can afford Sky subscription, which is too expensive for those in work.
So the quickest way to slash the Government deficit is to marry the benefit claimants with the Sky TV customer records.

A Good Deal?

People ask me whether the coalition is a good deal. If activists from both parties are complaining in equal measure that too much was given away, that says that it was about right.

No one believes that a minority Conservative government would have lasted beyond Christmas. Now there’s a good chance the coalition will last long enough to get to grips with Labour’s economic mess.

Meantime we must stomach the hike in capital gains tax and the delay in abolishing inheritance tax for families with modest wealth.
And hope for the best.

A Five Year Parliament

I don’t fully accept the notion that “the people have decided” when it comes to election results, especially the idea that Britain somehow chose a hung parliament last week.
Most people made up their own minds and voted individually -- only a minority were wishing for an inconclusive result. And none of them was expecting such resounding coalition deal.
I can’t help thinking that a lot of floating voters treated the entire process as a TV talent contest like the X-Factor and American Idol.
They imagined it was just for this year, and they’d get a chance to vote again next year.
Maybe they will, but the odds are that David Cameron has played a blinder, and they’ll be stuck with their decision for five years.

A Deal

It looks as though there’ll be a deal before the day is out.
It almost makes you want to believe in a proportional voting system, with single transferable votes and perpertual coalitions.

But these are very special times.
There’s thirteen years of Britain’s economic and social decline under Labour to sort out. And of all parties the Liberals can least afford a second General Election this year.
So whilst I’m happy to sup with the devil at Westminster, Britain’s third party -- with it’s childish campaigning methods -- is not welcome in Surrey.

The Cameron-Clegg deal will either make or break the Liberal Party.

Winning isn’t Everything

Elections are about making difference, and I’m still recovering from last Thursday’s marathon.
My day started in Surbiton at 5:30am with a deft touch to avoid clanking any letterboxes. After five hours delivering it was time to start door-knocking to encourage Conservative supporters to turn out. Ten hours later and I was still bumping into Liberals doing the same thing, meaning we’d kept them pinned down all day long.
Even if you can’t beat Liberals, it was just as nice stopping them concentrating their resources in Richmond Park where they lost a seat.
Ironically for a party that moans about the First Past The Post voting system, they are usually the ones who work it most to their advantage by mobilising their limited manpower to best effect.
Finally back to Spelthorne to watch over the count -- another five hours –- and about the last process left in Britain that is not electronic!

Always be Nice

For you never know who you might bump into.

A couple of weeks ago Ed Davey was asking directions to get to a meeting in Kingston, and a nice lady assisted -- at which point he rushed off without thanking her.
That lady joined the Conservative campaign team a few days later.

Maybe if Gordon Brown hadn’t been so intolerant of the media they wouldn’t have released the Bigotgate tape?

Vote Conservative on May 6th
A vote for the LibDems is a vote for five more years of Gordon Brown.

Bigotry

Seasoned political campaigner as I am, there’s hardly anything that shocks me on the doorstep.
Except working with a pregnant candidate recently, I’ve encountered bigotry from another age -- the Stone Age.
Admittedly forty years ago it was considered acceptable to believe a woman’s place was in the home. But it really is shocking that in the 21st century some people still think a woman should make a choice between having a career or raising a family.

Today’s LibDem Lie: Sorry this blog will no longer mention the name of Britain’s third party, or the despicable things they say in connection with the above subject.
Fortunately the police have started arresting them.

Conservative Support Firming Up

Expect the opinion polls to move tomorrow after I’ve detected a change in the last 24 hours.
Yesterday LibDem voters were being rude on the doorstep -- always a sign of piousness.
Whereas today (Sunday) even those people who have already voted LibDem (by post) were being pleasant, and wishing the Conservatives good luck -- rather odd, but symbolic I think.

Today’s LibDem Lie: Ed Davey, the man who has already claimed victory in his own constituency-wide leaflet, announced at lunchtime that "People dislike politicians because they don’t tell the truth".
This was after telling us that 80% of UK immigration comes from the European Union, when in fact it’s less than a third; and that the Conservatives stopped counting people out of the country, when it was in fact Labour who abolished exit controls in 1998.
Mr Davey also claimed his party’s amnesty would have no impact on future illegal immigration, when in fact all the evidence is to the contrary, from other countries which have tried it. Goodbye Mr Davey.

Don’t Attack LibDems

One of the great oddities of British politics is that small protest parties can win large numbers of votes by attacking the two mainstream parties. The more hypocritical the attack on policy, and the more personal the abuse about the opponent the better.
However the British love of the underdog means the reverse does not apply. In fact any attack on the LibDems can be counter-productive, as David Cameron found out during the third TV debate, when he criticised the LibDem's ridiculous amnesty for illegal immigrants. His rating immediately plunged.
It is frustrating to explain to Conservative voters why LibDem lies must go unanswered, but that’s just the way it is.

Today’s LibDem Lie: This will be almost the last LibDem lie feature -- unless next week’s election results in a realignment of British politics, and the LibDems cease to be a protest party, and return to the mainstream two-party system.

Unguarded Moment

Least written about the Prime Minister’s unguarded remarks the better, but I can’t help thinking they might not have seen the light of day had he got on better with the media. Tony Blair would have shrugged it off.
Nice that we’re allowed to talk about immigration now, it being one of the most common complaints on the doorstep.
Let’s hope the Liberals’ amnesty comes under scrutiny, with each of the one million illegals being allowed one family member from abroad.
No one is quite sure where the ex-Labour voters will go.
If there is an indecisive result I can see both left wing parties splitting, and a Cameron rainbow coalition to sort out Gordon Brown’s mess.

Today’s LibDem lie: Last week Nick Clegg said: “Politicians who sell their houses and pocket the money still haven’t been held to account.” Five years ago he made a profit of £240,000 selling his home in Brussels, after using his expenses as a Member of the European Parliament to help pay his mortgage.

Stolen Bicycles

Sympathies to Labour’s parliamentary candidate in Spelthorne.
He commutes from central London each day by train, with a folding bicycle so he can then get around. Unfortunately it keeps on getting stolen. Four times now he has bought a brand new one.
My advice, after I had my bike stolen, is to get a cheap second hand one!
Truly an indictment of thirteen years of soaring crime under Labour.

Hung Parliament

Few people seem to understand the constitutional position in the event of a hung parliament.

For a start Gordon Brown carries on as Prime Minster. He does not have to resign until he were to lose a vote of confidence in the House of Commons. It’s nothing to do with how many seats (or votes) each party has.

Britain’s third Party does not get to haggle over policy, though now doubt Labour will try to bribe them. If they decide not to keep Gordon Brown in power they are automatically locked in to back David Cameron as Prime Minster. They can’t pick and choose policy. Take it or leave it.

Failing that, we have another General Election, brought about by Liberal indecision.

NH-yeS

Campaigning today with Shadow Health Secretary Andrew Lansley, we learned why the Conservatives have health as the top priority.
The Conservatives do not believe in making the sick pay for Labour’s economic failure.

Most people rely on the NHS when they get ill, but it needs to be better run. Labour’s targets will be abolished in favour of decisions taken by the healthcare professionals, and patients themselves.

For instance, well-informed patients may opt for a slightly longer waiting list in order to avoid a hospital with a poorer hygiene record.

Today’s LibDem lie: Were it not for the fact that most Liberal Democrat MPs abstained in the House of Commons vote on the Lisbon Treaty, the amendment calling for a referendum would have passed, and the British people would have had the chance to reject the Treaty.
So let’s hear less from the Liberals complaining that the Conservatives won’t hold a referendum -- it’s now too late -- the Treaty is signed.

New Activists

Being a bit of an old lag -- though always willing to learn new tricks -- the enthusiasm amongst our new activists is humbling.

There are those who are returning to the fray after twenty years, perhaps from a different party. But more impressive is the ease with which brand new recruits -- many aged under thirty -- take to the campaign like a duck to water.

There is a widespread misconception that canvassing support for a political party is only for policy wonks. Well no, it’s actually just an ability to say hello and let people know the Conservatives care.

Today’s LibDem lie: The Liberal Democrats portray themselves as whiter than white yet refuse to return the £2.4 million donated by convicted fraudster Michael Brown. If they had any moral scruples they would set an example and reimburse all Michael Brown’s innocent victims, instead of hiding behind the Electoral Commission’s worthless verdict.

First Time Voters

After concluding that Cleggmania is mainly down to the exuberance of younger voters, it has been gratifying these last few days to find first time voters choosing the Conservatives.

And why are they going to vote Conservative?
Because they want a job!

Leave aside the fact that there has never been a Labour Government that didn’t end with more unemployed than when it started: the number of 16 to 24-year-olds seeking work in Britain is now 929,000 and rising.

Today’s LibDem lie: Nick Clegg repeats his pious claim that no LibDem MP abused their expenses for second homes, just one month after four of them were ordered to pay back £16,500 pocketed from a dodgy rent deal at the taxpayers’ expense.

Opinion Polls

I now have a view on the opinion polls and make the following prediction.
If, as seems likely, they are distorting the intentions of those who will actually be voting (by including the views of many youngsters who tend not to vote), then they will be abolished during the next General Election campaign as in continental Europe.
You have to balance the freedom of the press against the artificial volatility caused by people’s herd instinct.
Let people make up their own mind, rather than be told what to think!

Today’s LibDem lie: At the start of the recession Nick Clegg sympathised with voters by saying he was changing his grocery supplier from Waitrose to Sainsbury’s as they were a lot cheaper. The same Nick Clegg MP who claimed £1,657.32 worth of food on his parliamentary expenses in one four-month period alone.

Delivering to Flats

People are always telling me about flats [US: apartments] where they can’t deliver election leaflets.
Yes, more and more people are living in seclusion, and things are set to get worse under a Liberal Democrat administration, when only the most serious criminals will go to prison, because they will abolish sentences of less than six months.
However I have yet to find a building with more than five flats that I couldn’t get into, though admittedly there are hazards.
I have sheltered accommodation on my patch where the warden was always very defensive. After she faced a tirade of abuse from a senior Liberal Democrat local councillor 18 months ago she is even more protective. I have contacts who let me in, and I then have to whiz round the building undetected. Today I exited under her nose, as she sat at her desk.

Today’s LibDem lie: As Member of the European Parliament Nick Clegg used to fly to Brussels in economy class, but always claimed expenses for first class travel and pocketed the difference.

Cleggmania

Two clouds hang in the stratosphere across Britain this week.
We wait for the ash from the Icelandic volcano to clear, and for Nick Clegg’s X-factor stardom to wane.
The Liberals want us to scrutinise their policies. Well how about their amnesty for 600,000 illegal immigrants for starters -- our schools can’t cope. Add in unlimited immigration, “providing they only live up north”.
Locally they petition to keep hospitals open, but nationally there's no commitment to increase funding for the NHS.
And do they not realise cancelling Britain’s nuclear deterrent forfeits our place on the UN Security Council?
Opinion polls are saying one thing, but on the doorstep I’m finding little extra enthusiasm for the Liberals, and no stomach for another LibLab pact, the most likely outcome unless the Conservatives gain two dozen LibDem parliamentary seats.

Surbiton Farmers’ Market

I’ve just eaten some delicious lamb merguez sausages that I picked up from Surbiton Farmers’ Market on Saturday.
This project was initiated by a group of community activists who are now standing as Conservative candidates for their local council.
The existing Liberal Democrat councillors thought the idea of a farmers’ market was so good that they’d try and claim the credit for it.
They issued one of their Focus newsletters advertising the first one.
However the Conservatives decided there were “teething problems” with the plans, and delayed the launch by a month, leaving the Liberals with egg on their faces -- free range I hope!

Sore Feet

After two weeks of campaigning my feet have turned red, where the serrated edges of my bicycle pedals have gnawed through the thinnest part of the soles of my shoes.
As I rest up I wonder whether the phone companies have played a trick on the opinion pollsters, and routed their calls through to voters on Mars.
I’m not finding a single person changing their party allegiance based upon the party leaders TV debate last week.
No doubt the legions of uncommitted voters have plumped for one party over another, but their support is very fickle, and many won’t actually be voting.
When I remind them that unlike the prime ministerial contenders, the leader of Britain’s third party had nothing to lose, they admit that closer scrutiny will sway them again.
I repeat: wait until the poll on May 6th.